Monday Market Movement - My 2010 Technical Outlook

What’s going to happen next?

That’s the main question I get from people. I find it interesting that so many people want to believe that I can see the future but I suppose that’s been the same for thousands of years - people want to know what’s going to happen and they are willing to put their faith in someone who’s just a little more insightful than they are. This isn’t unique to stocks, my old consulting company was called Delphi Consulting - also taking advantage of my reputation as a business prognosticator.

While I do pride myself on my ability to spot trends early AND to figure out how to make a buck playing them (you can see how I did last year in our 2009 Review) - I don’t like it when that part of my reputation distracts from my general message, which is that NO ONE, not me, not Cramer, not anyone, can tell you what is going to happen next in the markets and the best strategy you can follow is one of maintaining a balanced, sensibly hedged portfolio that can make money in ANY market direction.

This weekend, in member chat, we were discussing an excellent presentation by James Montier, now of GMO, who listed "Ten Lessons (Not?) Learnt," which is a must read for all my Members, as it lists and expands on 10 themes that echo what we discuss every day at PSW - things every investor needs to hear and understand before they go chasing off after the next guru who promises to give them a peek at the future (emphasis on my 5 favorites):

* Markets Aren’t Efficient
* Relative Performance is a Dangerous Game
* This Time is Never Different
* Valuation Matters (in the Long Run)
* Wait for the “Fat” Pitch
* Sentiment Matters
* Leverage Can’t Turn a Bad Investment Good
* Beware of Over Quantification
* There is No Substitute for Skepticism
* The Benefits of Cheap Insurance

In short (since this is not supposed to be a philosophical article) neither James Montier or I can predict the future. I can’t speak for the thousand other bozos who tell you they can but we’re telling you, for a fact, that we cannot. So, bearing that in mind, let’s look at a few trends that we’ll be watching in 2010 and examining the possibilities of their outcome…

The Hidden Danger of Motorcycles

My younger brother has a motorcycle and has had at least some form of motorcycle ever since he could drive. He is currently twenty-five years old, and my parents hate the fact that he owns a motorcycle. What they don't know yet is that he is currently planning on going back to school to get a degree in aviation so that he can earn his commercial pilot's license. Yikes.

So, do my parents have any real reason or cause for concern? Um, yes, I would say that they do. Famed female hip hop artist and actress, Queen Latifah was extremely close to her younger brother when he was tragically killed in a horrific motorcycle accident. When I was a police officer in the Raleigh Police Department, there was an incident right before I was hired where a Raleigh police officer was killed when he lost control of his motorcycle after hitting an unseen bump on the road. At times, it almost seems silly to have a helmet law in certain states when it comes to riding a motorcycle because what sort of real protection is a helmet going to afford you when you are driving a motorcycle at speeds of over 80 miles per hour on an open road?

When I asked my brother why he wanted to own a motorcycle and more importantly, why he would want to ride a motorcycle, his answer was very typical of a guy- especially one at his tender age of 18 years old (back then): “because it's a little dangerous and very freeing”. He said he liked the feel of the wind in his face when he was speeding down the road. If that's the case, then why couldn't he get a boating license or purchase a convertible car where he could put the top up or down? Why choose a motorcycle? I still didn't understand it. That's when I started to notice something. Motorcycles attract a certain type of people.

When I first joined the police department, I noticed that the vast majority of police officers had or owned some form of motorcycle. Most of the motorcycles that were driven by police officers tended to be of the Harley Davidson variation. However, there were a few who enjoyed the sport bikes (similar to what my brother has). I thought it was really odd that there was such an overwhelming majority of men (and women) who seemed to really enjoy riding motorcycles. When I talked about it with some of my friends, some speculated that all people who owned motorcycles had at least one tattoo and were extremely short. I'm not sure how true this is, but I do know that there is something about driving out in the open with nothing surrounding you to protect you really- that motorcycle enthusiasts alike seem to find especially intriguing.

I still cannot quite put my finger on what it is about motorcycles that really excites the owners, but I do know that they are much more dangerous than driving in a vehicle.

The Hidden Danger of Motorcycles

My younger brother has a motorcycle and has had at least some form of motorcycle ever since he could drive. He is currently twenty-five years old, and my parents hate the fact that he owns a motorcycle. What they don't know yet is that he is currently planning on going back to school to get a degree in aviation so that he can earn his commercial pilot's license. Yikes.

So, do my parents have any real reason or cause for concern? Um, yes, I would say that they do. Famed female hip hop artist and actress, Queen Latifah was extremely close to her younger brother when he was tragically killed in a horrific motorcycle accident. When I was a police officer in the Raleigh Police Department, there was an incident right before I was hired where a Raleigh police officer was killed when he lost control of his motorcycle after hitting an unseen bump on the road. At times, it almost seems silly to have a helmet law in certain states when it comes to riding a motorcycle because what sort of real protection is a helmet going to afford you when you are driving a motorcycle at speeds of over 80 miles per hour on an open road?

When I asked my brother why he wanted to own a motorcycle and more importantly, why he would want to ride a motorcycle, his answer was very typical of a guy- especially one at his tender age of 18 years old (back then): “because it's a little dangerous and very freeing”. He said he liked the feel of the wind in his face when he was speeding down the road. If that's the case, then why couldn't he get a boating license or purchase a convertible car where he could put the top up or down? Why choose a motorcycle? I still didn't understand it. That's when I started to notice something. Motorcycles attract a certain type of people.

When I first joined the police department, I noticed that the vast majority of police officers had or owned some form of motorcycle. Most of the motorcycles that were driven by police officers tended to be of the Harley Davidson variation. However, there were a few who enjoyed the sport bikes (similar to what my brother has). I thought it was really odd that there was such an overwhelming majority of men (and women) who seemed to really enjoy riding motorcycles. When I talked about it with some of my friends, some speculated that all people who owned motorcycles had at least one tattoo and were extremely short. I'm not sure how true this is, but I do know that there is something about driving out in the open with nothing surrounding you to protect you really- that motorcycle enthusiasts alike seem to find especially intriguing.

I still cannot quite put my finger on what it is about motorcycles that really excites the owners, but I do know that they are much more dangerous than driving in a vehicle.

Autopilot Profits Internet Income: Is it Feasible?

The rush and excitement doesn’t seem to slow down for the internet marketing industry no matter how crowded it’s getting in the business. What would you expect? The more proliferate the industry becomes, the more awareness it creates, the more awareness generated, the more demand for goods and services available through the industry increases. It’s a cycle bound for expansion beyond reality’s logic. After all, it’s cyberspace we’re talking about here. But what about all the hype surrounding Ewen Chia’s new “set and forget” product: the Autopilot Profits? Well, there are two things that contribute to the uproar that accompanied the product’s release: it’s the brainchild of Ewen Chia (if you’ve been into internet marketing long enough you probably know the name), and the product claims to be able to set you up for a successful and lucrative internet marketing business.

Now if you think something’s fishy or amiss, that’s natural. The benefit of the doubt here is caution. Let’s examine how you can get Autopilot Profits internet income according to the product claims. All in all, the product claims to be able to do it all for you, but let’s look into probably the more interesting and eye-catching stuff. First, let’s delve into the ‘automatic’ stuff: automatic website set up and business arrangements (automatic payroll set up scheme, et al). This part would definitely appeal to a first timer or greenhorn in the industry. The promise of Autopilot Profits internet income without exerting a relatively huge amount of effort is quite a catch. The product claims to be able to teach you, step-by-step, how to create your own effective website/s, payroll systems, the works. Then, it also claims to be able to point you in the right direction: how to find the proper potential consumer base, how to get web traffic, how to market your product, and so on. Now this aspect of the product appeals to both rookies and those who’ve been in the business for some time. The product claims to be able to teach you all the best practices you need to be successful (and ergo, rich).

As you can very well see: it’s eye candy. But is there even a slight vestige to the verity of these claims? Yes, there is. There are a handful of pinpoint practices that one needs to learn and apply, and upon implementation, he can immediately reap its rewards. There is a particularly successful pattern of setting up a website and all the business arrangements necessary to get things going. But then that all leads to the last and most important claim of the product: putting everything on ‘Autopilot.’

Again, quite an appealing prospect—sitting back and relaxing while watching the Autopilot Profits internet income flow in. But is it feasible? Actually, yes, it is. But that doesn’t mean you’ll have it as easy as the product claims. At the very least, the whole package would benefit both the newbie and experienced internet marketing affiliate, and it would definitely help out in setting things up and getting things going (especially keeping them going with minimum supervision), but though cyberspace may be a place where remote manipulation and ‘Autopilot’ programs flourish and thrive, it’s not going to be a good idea to let your programs work for you. If you want to try it out yourself, do so, but keep in mind that aait’s still best to learn and improve on what you have.